279
FXUS64 KSJT 070814
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
214 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG EASTERN HALF OF THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
- WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN
TURNING MUCH COOLER FOLLOWING A THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVE
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BIG COUNTRY AS
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY BREAK UP AS
DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO
AROUND FREEZING TO FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK, AND OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY MONDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
RETURN OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.
WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. INCREASED/BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL
ESSENTIALLY JUST RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE STRONGER
WITH THIS FRONT. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE KEY TO HOW
WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY (PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE). AT THIS
TIME, BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. BLENDED MODEL APPROACH HAS TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FROM NEAR 50 NORTH
TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH, AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER,
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING
COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS AND THE POSSIBLE NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES LOWER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUD IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG AND IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
THE KABI AREA BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF MVFR INTO THE KBBD TERMINAL LOCATION DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, STILL LOOKS LIKE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 59 32 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 62 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 59 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 64 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 60 32 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-
HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07
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