007
FXUS64 KSJT 042315
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
515 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND DEGRADED TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND
CONCHO VALLEY. THE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS IS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD, WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION MID MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE MORE BRIEF.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN MONDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, MAINLY
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE,
WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME, IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DIG SOUTH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, DRY AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND TIMING. FOR
NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES (20% TO 30%) FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM,
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BRING IFR AND MVFR
CIGS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL TERMINALS BY
SUNRISE. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO MID/LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL SWING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY MONDAY MORNING WITH GUST NEAR OR ABOVE
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 52 81 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 50 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 47 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 45 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 54 79 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 47 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07
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