523
FXUS64 KSJT 051115
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
515 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND DEGRADED TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, THEN
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DAILY
RECORDS FOR JANUARY 5TH ARE 85 AT ABILENE AND 80 AT SAN ANGELO. A
LEE TROUGH IS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO, RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY
DAYBREAK, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S STILL UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
BY THURSDAY, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW WEAKENING AND OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS IT
MOVES OVER TEXAS. THE "EURO" MODEL IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, AND BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE WEAKENED A
BIT MORE THAN YESTERDAY'S DEPICTIONS OF THE WAVE. THUS, WHILE WE
WILL STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF 20%-30% FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE
CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. WE WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.
ALSO, A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE, USHERING IN COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLY REASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S, AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
STRATUS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN 3 SITES THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT KABI AND KSJT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 51 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 81 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 78 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 80 49 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 79 50 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 77 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 78 54 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DANIELS
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