873
FXUS64 KSJT 051932
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
132 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, THEN
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DAILY
RECORDS FOR JANUARY 5TH ARE 85 AT ABILENE AND 80 AT SAN ANGELO. A
LEE TROUGH IS AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO, RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY
DAYBREAK, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING IN OUR AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 78 (SET IN 2006) WEDNESDAY AT ABILENE LOOKS TO BE IN
JEOPARDY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO CLYDE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY SHUT OFF DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY BUT STILL WELL-ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE A DRY BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN COLD NIGHTS. EXPECTING
SUB-FREEZING LOWS (MOSTLY IN THE 20S) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S) WITH A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AT THIS TIME, JUST CARRYING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FOR OUR AREA AND KEEPING POPS BELOW ANYTHING MENTIONABLE
(BELOW 15 PERCENT).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS
DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KJCT AND KSOA BUT MOST
OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS, SO WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSJT AND KABI. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
IT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 51 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 49 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 49 81 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 48 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 51 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 49 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 55 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24
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