409
FXUS64 KSJT 060557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1157 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BUT A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, ABILENE'S RECORD HIGH
WEDNESDAY IS 78 DEGREES, AND THE FORECAST IS 80. AS FOR SAN
ANGELO, THE RECORD IS 87 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD BE SAFE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD TEXAS WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER LEVEL THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THEY
HAVE STARTED AGREEING BETTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND THE
INTENSITY OF THAT PRECIPITATION. NEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
THAT FORECASTS OUT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
THIS LINE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL RATHER LIGHT RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH THE TRACK OF
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SONORA TO BROWNWOOD, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
MOVE IN ON THURSDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A STRONGER FRONT OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH MAINLY 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO
A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 3
TERMINALS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. INCLUDED A
BRIEF SCATTERED DECK FROM 08Z TO AS LATE AS 16Z TO SHOW FOR THE
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 50 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 81 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 79 49 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 81 48 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 79 50 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 79 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 78 55 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP
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