874
FXUS64 KSJT 061945
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN TOMORROW, WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ABILENE
TOMORROW IS 78 DEGREES AND THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR
BROKEN TOMORROW. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SAN ANGELO TOMORROW IS 87
DEGREES, AND SHOULD REMAIN SAFE, WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH OF 81
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, ABILENE'S RECORD HIGH
WEDNESDAY IS 78 DEGREES, AND THE FORECAST IS 80. AS FOR SAN
ANGELO, THE RECORD IS 87 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD BE SAFE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD TEXAS WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER LEVEL THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THEY
HAVE STARTED AGREEING BETTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND THE
INTENSITY OF THAT PRECIPITATION. NEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
THAT FORECASTS OUT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
THIS LINE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL RATHER LIGHT RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WITH THE TRACK OF
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SONORA TO BROWNWOOD, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THE PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
MOVE IN ON THURSDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A STRONGER FRONT OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH MAINLY 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 48 80 57 72 / 0 0 60 10
SAN ANGELO 46 81 54 72 / 0 0 40 0
JUNCTION 46 82 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 43 81 56 74 / 0 0 30 10
SWEETWATER 49 79 55 71 / 0 0 60 10
OZONA 47 78 53 72 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 49 80 59 73 / 0 0 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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