363
FXUS64 KSJT 062344 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN TOMORROW, WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ABILENE
TOMORROW IS 78 DEGREES AND THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR
BROKEN TOMORROW. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SAN ANGELO TOMORROW IS 87
DEGREES, AND SHOULD REMAIN SAFE, WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH OF 81
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE BETTER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC DAY2 HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO CROSS
PLAINS LINE. WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, INSTABILITY IS
WEAK WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 200-300 J/KG; THOUGH BULK
SHEARS ARE HIGH IN THE 60 KTS RANGE. WITH MOST STORM ACTIVITY LATE,
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES END
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA THURSDAY, BRINGING SOME
BREEZY WEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. RH MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE, ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT MOVES
IN FRIDAY. WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY, COLDER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
SATURDAY AND MID/UPPER 50S SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-20 SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (INCLUDING
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN CROCKETT AND WESTERN IRION COUNTY) BUT
POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND VERY LOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING THE EC ARE DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INITIALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE MORNING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT KABI AND KSJT, AND GUSTS NEAR 18
KNOTS AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SHOULD HAVE A SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD (BASES
NEAR 5000 FT) OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 48 80 57 72 / 0 0 60 10
SAN ANGELO 46 81 54 72 / 0 0 40 0
JUNCTION 46 82 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 43 81 56 74 / 0 0 30 10
SWEETWATER 49 79 55 71 / 0 0 60 10
OZONA 47 78 53 72 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 49 80 59 73 / 0 0 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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