639
FXUS64 KSJT 070603
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN TOMORROW, WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ABILENE
TOMORROW IS 78 DEGREES AND THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR
BROKEN TOMORROW. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SAN ANGELO TOMORROW IS 87
DEGREES, AND SHOULD REMAIN SAFE, WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH OF 81
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE ARE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWARD. SPC CURRENTLY HAS PART OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH A
MARGINAL RISK, WITH THE BIG COUNTRY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME, WHICH WOULD HINDER
THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THESE
BREEZY WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE,
WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME CHANGE TO OUR TEMPERATURES
AND BRING US SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM, SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY,
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT KABI AND KSJT,
AND GUSTS NEAR 18 KNOTS AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SHOULD HAVE A SCATTERED CLOUD
FIELD (BASES NEAR 5000 FT) OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 60 74 47 / 0 40 10 0
SAN ANGELO 82 58 73 43 / 0 20 10 0
JUNCTION 83 57 76 44 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 81 59 76 44 / 0 20 10 0
SWEETWATER 79 58 71 47 / 0 50 10 0
OZONA 78 55 73 43 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 81 60 74 48 / 0 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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