377
FXUS64 KSJT 071118
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
518 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT
AND WEAKEN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
INSTABILITY, BUT HIGH SHEAR. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. AT
THIS POINT, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK, USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE ARE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
AND NORTHWARD. SPC CURRENTLY HAS PART OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH A
MARGINAL RISK, WITH THE BIG COUNTRY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME, WHICH WOULD HINDER
THE STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THESE
BREEZY WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE,
WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME CHANGE TO OUR TEMPERATURES
AND BRING US SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM, SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT KJCT AND KBBD AFTER 11Z, RESULTING IN
MVFR CEILINGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT KABI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AS A 40 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 60 74 47 / 0 40 10 0
SAN ANGELO 82 58 73 43 / 0 20 10 0
JUNCTION 83 57 76 44 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 81 59 76 44 / 0 20 10 0
SWEETWATER 79 58 71 47 / 0 50 10 0
OZONA 78 55 73 43 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 81 60 74 48 / 0 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...DANIELS
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