499
FXUS64 KSJT 072022
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
222 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH, AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 AM.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK, IN THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS
HIGH WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 60 KTS. SPC DAY 1 HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY.
MAIN RISK WOULD BE STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST AS STORMS BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
BREEZY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH....PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BIG
LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S. WE MAY END UP ON THE EDGE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A TOUCH FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12KTS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARDS 5Z AS A
45-50KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND PARTIALLY MIXES DOWN.
MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT KJCT
AND KBBD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT KABI. ONLY
MENTIONED VCSH AS COVERAGE WILL BE LO. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OTHERWISE SHIFT WEST MID MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 74 47 66 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 58 73 43 66 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 58 77 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 77 43 70 / 20 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 58 72 47 63 / 50 10 0 0
OZONA 56 72 44 66 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 62 75 47 69 / 10 10 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...04
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