904
FXUS64 KSJT 072359 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH, AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 AM.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK, IN THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS
HIGH WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 60 KTS. SPC DAY 1 HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY.
MAIN RISK WOULD BE STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST AS STORMS BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
BREEZY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH....PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BIG
LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY TO BROWNWOOD LINE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S. WE MAY END UP ON THE EDGE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A TOUCH FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SOUTH WINDS 8-11 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT KABI 09Z-11Z, WHEN
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE THROUGH. THE
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES,
WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HALF (AND MAINLLY NORTHERN THIRD) OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN
THE MORNING, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS (NEAR 30 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED
AT KABI AND KSJT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 74 47 66 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 58 73 43 66 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 58 77 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 77 43 70 / 20 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 58 72 47 63 / 50 10 0 0
OZONA 56 72 44 66 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 62 75 47 69 / 10 10 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19
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