530
FXUS64 KSJT 080604
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1204 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY. STILL, A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. MOST CAMS KEEP THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
ISOLATED, AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNRISE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S. WE MAY END UP ON THE EDGE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A TOUCH FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, SOUTH WINDS ARE
INCREASING AND WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSRA AT KABI 09Z-11Z, TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. THE CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES, WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT RESULT
IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH PASSAGE OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS (AROUND
30 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AT KABI AND KSJT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 46 68 34 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 75 43 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 79 43 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 76 43 71 33 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 72 46 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 73 43 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 77 47 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19
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