308
FXUS64 KSJT 080612
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLY THE BIG COUNTRY. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY. STILL, A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. MOST CAMS KEEP THE ACTIVITY FAIRLY
ISOLATED, AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
BY SUNRISE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN BY FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN IT SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIVING FORCES BEHIND THE WEATHER MUCH
OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A DRIER SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
OVERALL, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. GIVEN THAT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM, THERE IS EQUALLY LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF SNOW DURING THESE
COLDER OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, SOUTH WINDS ARE
INCREASING AND WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSRA AT KABI 09Z-11Z, TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. THE CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES, WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT RESULT
IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH PASSAGE OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS (AROUND
30 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AT KABI AND KSJT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 46 68 34 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 75 43 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 79 43 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 76 43 71 33 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 72 46 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 73 43 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 77 47 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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