487
FXUS64 KSJT 091131
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN FAR EASTERN MASON AND SAN SABA COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S, WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETUP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITING THE
REGION TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT,
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY SUNDAY MORNING,
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30,
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL, ALONG
PROLONGED DRIER CONDITIONS (RH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE), WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENSION TO THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK ON FRIDAY TO ALSO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 35
MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL NOT COMPLETELY PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, BUT WILL ACT
TO SLOW IT DOWN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY STAYING IN THE 60S
FOR THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO
LOW 40S. GENERALLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY, WITH A EVER-SO-SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS COMING TO FRUITION FOR MONDAY
AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS
AT KABI AND KSJT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY 17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 7-11 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. INCREASED
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER ITS PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 33 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 69 33 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 33 56 24 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 73 34 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 67 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 67 32 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 70 35 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42
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