180
FXUS64 KSJT 110646
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
- COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD
LINE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO
A VERY DRY AIR AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S, WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. A VERY HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ALSO, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM SOUTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EAST COAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER MEXICO
WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE ARE BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL BLEND POPS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY
MUCH, MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE ALTHOUGH THEY
HAVE SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
HEARTLAND. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE MODELS AT THIS POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE WIDESPREAD.
STRONGER AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THEN TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE US FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL
POTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS STILL A QUESTION, ALTHOUGH MOST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. NOT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN ARE
IN YET, BUT THE 12Z RUNS INCLUDING A ROUGHLY 10% CHANCE OF SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS (3 OF THE 30 GFS
MEMBERS, 5 OF THE 50 ECMWF MEMBERS, AND AROUND 10% PROBABILITIES
FROM THE LREF) ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATEST NBM
BLEND COMING IN EARLY THIS MORNING KEEPS ANY POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND THUS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. IN THIS TYPE OF HIGHLY ENERGETIC
PATTERN THOUGH, FORECASTS OFTEN SHOW WIDE FLUCTUATIONS AT THIS
TYPE OF TIME RANGE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IT MIGHT BE WITH
OTHER PATTERNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTH
LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 59 34 61 37 / 0 0 0 20
JUNCTION 61 32 61 37 / 0 0 0 20
BROWNWOOD 61 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 59 36 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 59 35 57 38 / 0 0 0 40
BRADY 59 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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