407
FXUS64 KSJT 161823
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES, HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS PART OF THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
DRY AND WARM THIS WEEK, BUT WITH COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT AND A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING DOWNSLOPE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THE FORECAST HIGH OF 85
FOR ABILENE WOULD TIE THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 17 SET BACK IN
1897. MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL 20 PERCENT ALONG A STERLING CITY TO
SWEETWATER TO HASKELL LINE, BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THAT
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT COOL SLIGHTLY
INTO THE LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
IN. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. HIGHS THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KTS. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND SHOULD
HAVE SOME GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT KABI AND KSJT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 11Z
TUESDAY, AND QUICKLY START TO LIFT BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 57 85 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 85 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 49 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 50 85 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 51 82 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 52 84 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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