044
FXUS64 KSJT 162345
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
545 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES, HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS PART OF THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S, WITH NORMAL
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS
ON THURSDAY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A STRONGER FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, IN THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME HINT AT MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING THE KSOA SITE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS JUST YET TO INTRODUCE ANY
LOW CLOUDS THERE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, GUSTS TO DROP OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR, LEAVING SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 57 85 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 85 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 49 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 50 85 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 51 82 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 52 84 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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