120
FXUS64 KSJT 170658
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES, HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS PART OF THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN WARMER TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY, MOVING EAST INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI THURSDAY. WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW IS QUITE A BIT NORTH OF THE REGION, IT WILL STILL
GIVE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MAINLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY, AND LIGHTER WEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODELS HAD A GLANCING BLOW, WITH MOST OF THE PUSH
OF COLD AIR TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE MODELS AREA TRENDING MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY PUSH, WITH MORE COLD ADVECTION. THIS BRINGS HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 60S SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S, AND A FEW AREAS COULD
POSSIBLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING IF WINDS
GO LIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THERE IS OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR OR MVFR STRATUS APPROACHING KSOA
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF IT OUT,
AS MOST STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN ARE
SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS AT THE KSJT AND KABI TERMINAL, WITH UP TO
27 KTS, MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN SHIFT WEST
EARLY EVENING BUT LOSE THEIR GUSTY CHARACTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 84 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 85 49 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 84 49 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 85 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 84 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 83 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 84 53 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04
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