543
FXUS64 KSJT 190047
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THURSDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST,
BUT REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY,
WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE BIG
COUNTRY BEFORE MAX HEATING, LEAVING IT WARM FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM USUALLY DOES WELL ON THESE SHALLOW AIR MASSES SO WILL GO WITH
THIS IDEA FOR NOW. IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER,
WILL DROP READINGS A LITTLE MORE.
WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY,
AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION, EVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT
SURPRISE ME IF TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN,
MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE,
TEMPERATURES ON THESE NIGHTS CAN VARY A LOT FROM NEARLY CALM WINDS
TO WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 3 OR 4 MPH, SO SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN
TO SEE A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS MAY WELL DROP INTO THE 20S.
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS INFLUENCED MORE BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PARKED OVER WESTERN MEXICO FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 49 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 52 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 48 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 52 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 48 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 55 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page