621
FXUS64 KSJT 190443
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1043 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THURSDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST,
BUT REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY,
WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE BIG
COUNTRY BEFORE MAX HEATING, LEAVING IT WARM FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM USUALLY DOES WELL ON THESE SHALLOW AIR MASSES SO WILL GO WITH
THIS IDEA FOR NOW. IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER,
WILL DROP READINGS A LITTLE MORE.
WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY,
AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY PUSHING HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION, EVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT
SURPRISE ME IF TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN,
MODEL BLENDS ARE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE,
TEMPERATURES ON THESE NIGHTS CAN VARY A LOT FROM NEARLY CALM WINDS
TO WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 3 OR 4 MPH, SO SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN
TO SEE A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS MAY WELL DROP INTO THE 20S.
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS INFLUENCED MORE BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PARKED OVER WESTERN MEXICO FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. KABI, KSJT,
AND KBBD CAN SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 49 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 52 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 49 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 52 71 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 48 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 54 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page