709
FXUS64 KSJT 191831
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORD TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH. A COLD FRONT, DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER KANSAS, WAS LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY NOONTIME. WINDS WILL TURN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE
PARENT LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD TO MISSOURI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT, FROM THE
NORTH THIS TIME, IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MODEL
BLENDS SEEM TO ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF MANY OF THE DIFFERENT
MEMBERS WITH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25% AND 75% PERCENTILE
MODEL MEMBERS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, NOT GOING TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE NBM. ONE AREA WHERE
WE MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IS ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS NOTED BEFORE, WIND SPEEDS
ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL AND CAN MAKE A 5-7 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THOSE COLD POOLING AREAS. LOWS NOW ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE, BUT ONCE WE GET A LITTLE BETTER FEEL ON EXACTLY WHAT AREAS
MAY GO CALM, WE MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD DRAINAGE AREAS MAY WELL BE ABLE TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THE WARMING TREND STARTS AGAIN AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS. HIGHS PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK ARE POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK, 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS AT ABILENE AND
SAN ANGELO ARE IN THE MID 90S SO WILL. PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
THAT AT THE MOMENT ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, AND CERTAINLY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. IF THIS OCCURS, THE
KJCT TAF SITE COULD HAVE INTERVALS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AT OUR TAF SITES, BUT WINDS AT KABI WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY,
WINDS AT KABI, KBBD AND KJCT WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KSJT AND KSOA WILL VEER TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY. BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING, SOME VFR-BASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP AT KJCT AND KBBD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 43 71 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 44 79 43 66 / 0 10 0 0
JUNCTION 47 81 46 72 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 42 71 44 64 / 0 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 44 75 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 47 81 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 48 77 48 66 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
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