030
FXUS64 KSJT 200434
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1034 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORD TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HEARTLAND AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH (IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LARGE TROUGH, WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS SETUP, A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE END
RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY COOLER (ALBEIT MODERATING)
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. GOING
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES, TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY, WHILE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MODEL
BLENDS SEEM TO ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF MANY OF THE DIFFERENT
MEMBERS WITH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25% AND 75% PERCENTILE
MODEL MEMBERS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, NOT GOING TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE NBM. ONE AREA WHERE
WE MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IS ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS NOTED BEFORE, WIND SPEEDS
ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL AND CAN MAKE A 5-7 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THOSE COLD POOLING AREAS. LOWS NOW ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE, BUT ONCE WE GET A LITTLE BETTER FEEL ON EXACTLY WHAT AREAS
MAY GO CALM, WE MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD DRAINAGE AREAS MAY WELL BE ABLE TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THE WARMING TREND STARTS AGAIN AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS. HIGHS PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK ARE POSSIBLE
MIDWEEK, 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS AT ABILENE AND
SAN ANGELO ARE IN THE MID 90S SO WILL. PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
THAT AT THE MOMENT ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, AND CERTAINLY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE KSOA AND KJCT TERMINALS. GENERALLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH KABI, KSJT AND KBBD
BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 12
KTS DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 42 70 42 59 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 45 76 42 66 / 0 10 0 0
JUNCTION 48 78 45 72 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 42 69 42 65 / 0 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 43 73 43 58 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 48 78 45 68 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 48 70 46 67 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP
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