895
FXUS64 KSJT 202349
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
549 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SATURDAY.
- A LITTLE COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORD TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MOVING
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWEST
5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, BUT PROTECTED AREAS MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MID
MORNING SATURDAY, BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH EXPECTED IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM MID 50S IN THE BIG COUNTRY
TO UPPER 60S ALONG I-10.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS MINIMUM RH VALUES
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
13-20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO BRADY
AND MASON AND SOUTHWARD, AND ARE IN THE MORE CRITICAL AREA. A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SATURDAY FOR
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA, PUTTING US
UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE MORE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, LOWS
WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S. DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW,
KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH,
ALLOWING FOR WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP IN THE 80S, WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER
RH DATA SUGGESTS A WINDOW FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO TO 3 AM SATURDAY
WHERE A LITTLE PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, IT MAY
AFFECT KJCT WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MONITOR TONIGHT AND ADD
THIS LOW CLOUD MENTION IF NEEDED. GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 03Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INITIAL WIND
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS (AT 6-8 KNOTS) IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME. INCREASED AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 25-28 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 41 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 40 63 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 43 68 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 40 61 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 41 56 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 42 65 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 43 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19
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