701
FXUS64 KSJT 090557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY KEEP LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER-LOW WILL START TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND APPROACH WESTERN TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. THIS MEANS WARMER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE THEY ARE FORECASTED TO
HAVE LESS LINGERING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
HIGHS MONDAY RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY,
AND IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND REACH FAR WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, WHICH ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE MAIN THREAT WILL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING, MAINLY OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES, WHICH WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW LYING
AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MILD,
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NORTH ACROSS MOST OF OUR
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE
MVFR AT KABI LATE TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING, WHILE CEILINGS LOWER
TO IFR AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND KSJT. CONTINUING TO INCLUDE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH FOG/MIST AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS
IN THE 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME. THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP
BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING AT KABI/KSJT WHILE PERSISTING (WITH MVFR
CEILINGS) AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
MID-AFTERNOON, EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE VFR AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE HIGHER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT KABI, WHERE GUSTS 20-23 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER
15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 65 81 54 / 0 10 80 80
SAN ANGELO 82 63 81 51 / 0 10 80 80
JUNCTION 82 61 80 50 / 10 20 70 90
BROWNWOOD 83 62 79 53 / 0 10 70 90
SWEETWATER 85 65 81 54 / 0 10 80 60
OZONA 79 62 80 51 / 0 10 80 70
BRADY 80 64 77 53 / 0 10 70 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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