492
FXUS64 KSJT 091900
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
200 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY WEST OF THE BAJA REGION, WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY AND A LITTLE FASTER TONIGHT INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
BY 6 AM TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE GULF. OUR AREA
WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RETURNING IN EARNEST TO OUR AREA, WITH EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER
AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 50S AND INTO THE LOWER
60S. GOING THROUGH THE DAY, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE SOUTH. WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST OF THE BIG
COUNTRY.
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR A WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS SETUP, A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A SOUTH BREEZE. LOWS WILL BE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SQUALL LINE TIMING HAS SPED UP IN THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE HRRR MODEL, EXTENDING EAST ALONG A HASKELL TO
SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE 6 PM TUESDAY...THEN MOVING EAST TO AN
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE 9 PM...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SPC HAS UPGRADED DAY 2
TUESDAY TO AN ENHANCED RISK, FOR HAZARDS OF 2+ INCH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 74 MPH PLUS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WITH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING
COOLING, PARTICULARLY BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MVFR CIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF AN OZONA TO ABILENE TO CROSS
PLAINS LINE WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR THROUGH 20Z, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
20Z TODAY AND 06Z TUES. 06Z TUES TO 18Z TUES, MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A SONORA TO COLEMAN LINE.
MEANWHILE, SW TO S WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 17-23 KT WILL
WEAKEN TO AROUND 6-10 KT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 00Z TUES,
AND GENERALLY CONTINUE AT THAT SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH 15Z TUES
BEFORE INCREASING TO 9-12 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-19 KT 15Z TUES
THROUGH 18Z TUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 66 83 53 73 / 10 70 80 30
SAN ANGELO 66 83 51 76 / 10 70 80 10
JUNCTION 62 80 51 77 / 20 50 90 10
BROWNWOOD 65 80 53 75 / 10 50 100 30
SWEETWATER 66 84 53 71 / 10 70 60 20
OZONA 64 80 50 77 / 10 70 70 10
BRADY 66 78 53 73 / 10 50 100 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SJH
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