821
FXUS64 KSJT 100539
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE
A FEW TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 74+ MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT UP BY THE LOW IS PUSHING UP INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING,
BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT SOME MORNING BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CLEARING OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS, AND EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST DECENT INSOLATION FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AND A WARMER 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND INTO BAJA AND NW MEXICO LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH THE LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, EXPECT WARM LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
60S DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES. TUESDAY MORNING, MORE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY (MLCAPE REACHING
500-1500 J/KG). MEANWHILE, MODELS INDICATE THAT BY MID AFTERNOON,
THE DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM CHILDRESS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
IRAAN AND INTO SANDERSON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY, STRONG
LIFT WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES, AND INCREASED MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP TO 62 F
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.2-1.5 INCHES) WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE BETWEEN MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN
TENDS TO FAVOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A HASKELL TO SONORA LINE FOR THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE,
HREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO 50-70
KT AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (SRH) INCREASING TO 150-200
M2/S2, BOTH OF WHICH STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL FORMATION. ALSO, THE 0-
1 KM SRH IS PROGGED TO BE ELEVATED AS WELL (100-200 M2/S2), WHICH
INDICATES AN INCREASED TORNADO RISK. THUS, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER'S 11 AM UPDATE HAS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
5% TORNADO RISK, 15-30% DAMAGING WIND RISK (WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF
74+ MPH), AND 15-30% LARGE HAIL RISK (WITH HAILSTONES OF 2"+
DIAMETER). SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE DETAILS ON THE
REST OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY, DUE
TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS,
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AND WEAKENING OF THE 850MB
THERMAL RIDGE, HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER, DOWN IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SQUALL LINE TIMING HAS SPED UP IN THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE HRRR MODEL, EXTENDING EAST ALONG A HASKELL TO
SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE 6 PM TUESDAY...THEN MOVING EAST TO AN
BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE 9 PM...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SPC HAS UPGRADED DAY 2
TUESDAY TO AN ENHANCED RISK, FOR HAZARDS OF 2+ INCH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 74 MPH PLUS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WITH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING
COOLING, PARTICULARLY BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS WILL HAVE SHORTER
DURATION OF CLOUD CLOUDS THAN AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS. CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AT OUR TAF
SITES SOUTH OF KABI. IN ADDITION, CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM AT
KABI AND KSJT. A MORE EXTENSIVE QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS AT OUR TAF SITES FOR
THIS. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 53 73 39 / 80 80 10 0
SAN ANGELO 85 50 76 40 / 80 80 10 0
JUNCTION 81 50 79 39 / 60 90 10 10
BROWNWOOD 81 53 76 40 / 60 90 20 10
SWEETWATER 85 53 71 40 / 80 60 10 0
OZONA 81 49 78 42 / 80 70 0 0
BRADY 78 53 74 41 / 60 90 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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