794
FXUS64 KSJT 100805 CCA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
303 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE A FEW
TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL OF 3.5+ INCH DIAMETER, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 74+ MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY,
WITH THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE TX/NM BORDER INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A SONORA TO BAIRD LINE. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME, WHEN CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
AIRMASS OCCURS. WITH STRENGTHENING AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH INCREASED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY, THE
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BRING AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NOW HAS
ALL OF OUR AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH A 5% TORNADO RISK, 30% DAMAGING WIND RISK (WITH
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 74+ MPH), AND A 30% LARGE HAIL RISK (WITH
HAILSTONES OF 3.5+ INCHES IN DIAMETER).
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH THE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (MOSTLY IN THE 7 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME). TRAILING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS AND A FEW SPIN-UP TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
QLCS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.6 INCHES, HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.
WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AND TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME, GOING WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH LOWER 70S IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COOLER BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 49-53 DEGREES, WITH MID 50S FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS, AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 70S.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED DOWN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. NO
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS WILL HAVE SHORTER
DURATION OF CLOUD CLOUDS THAN AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS. CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AT OUR TAF
SITES SOUTH OF KABI. IN ADDITION, CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM AT
KABI AND KSJT. A MORE EXTENSIVE QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS AT OUR TAF SITES FOR
THIS. SOME OF THE STORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 53 73 39 / 80 80 10 0
SAN ANGELO 85 50 76 40 / 80 80 10 0
JUNCTION 82 50 79 39 / 60 90 10 10
BROWNWOOD 82 53 76 40 / 60 90 20 10
SWEETWATER 85 53 71 40 / 80 60 10 0
OZONA 83 49 78 42 / 80 70 0 0
BRADY 79 53 74 41 / 60 90 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...19
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