678
FXUS64 KSJT 101731
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES,
VERY LARGE HAIL PEAKING AT 3.5+ INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 74+ MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY,
WITH THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE TX/NM BORDER INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO OUR AREA BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A SONORA TO BAIRD LINE. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME, WHEN CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
AIRMASS OCCURS. WITH STRENGTHENING AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH INCREASED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY, THE
SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BRING AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NOW HAS
ALL OF OUR AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH A 5% TORNADO RISK, 30% DAMAGING WIND RISK (WITH
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 74+ MPH), AND A 30% LARGE HAIL RISK (WITH
PEAK HAILSTONE SIZE OF 3.5+ INCHES IN DIAMETER).
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH THE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (MOSTLY IN THE 7 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME). TRAILING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT,
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND A FEW SPIN-UP TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE QLCS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.6
INCHES, HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AND TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 49-53 DEGREES,
WITH MID 50S FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS, AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 70S.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED DOWN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. NO
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OF KBBD AND
KJCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IS THE BIGGER CONCERN. USED THE LATEST HI RES
CAMS FOR THE FIRST GUESS ON STORM TIMING ACROSS THE AREA BUT FULLY
ANTICIPATE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE STORMS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP.
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND TAKE THE
STORMS WITH IT LATER TONIGHT, WITH MUCH STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST YET, BUT WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 85 54 72 38 / 90 70 0 0
SAN ANGELO 85 51 75 39 / 80 70 0 0
JUNCTION 81 51 78 38 / 50 90 10 0
BROWNWOOD 80 54 76 38 / 60 90 10 0
SWEETWATER 86 54 69 39 / 70 50 0 0
OZONA 81 50 77 40 / 70 70 0 0
BRADY 79 54 74 40 / 60 90 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
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