481
FXUS64 KSJT 101826
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
126 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES,
VERY LARGE HAIL PEAKING AT 3.5+ INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 74+ MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. LATEST CAMS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF A DRYLINE APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF
THE AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 2000J/KG OR MORE, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
SYSTEM. CAMS SHOW RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SPREADING NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT GOING TO REHASH AT THIS POINT. FORCING INCREASES AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION
INTO A LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND HILL COUNTRY.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO REDEVELOP. IF THE
TRANSITION TO A LINE HASN'T HAPPENED YET AND STORMS ARE STILL
DISCRETE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST.
ALSO WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR LINGERS THE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS AREAS LIKE SAN SABA, BRADY, AND JUNCTION AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXPANDS THE RAINFALL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MOVEMENT OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING, BUT
IF ITS NOT THEN RAIN TOTALS MAY ADD UP FAST OVER THERE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE I-
10 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS, AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 70S.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED DOWN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. NO
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS OF KBBD AND
KJCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AND LIFTING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IS THE BIGGER CONCERN. USED THE LATEST HI RES
CAMS FOR THE FIRST GUESS ON STORM TIMING ACROSS THE AREA BUT FULLY
ANTICIPATE UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE STORMS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP.
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND TAKE THE
STORMS WITH IT LATER TONIGHT, WITH MUCH STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST YET, BUT WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 54 72 38 67 / 70 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 75 39 70 / 70 0 0 0
JUNCTION 51 78 38 68 / 90 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 54 76 38 67 / 90 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 54 69 39 69 / 50 0 0 0
OZONA 50 77 40 70 / 70 0 0 0
BRADY 54 74 40 64 / 90 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page