431
FXUS64 KSJT 110605
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
105 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES,
VERY LARGE HAIL PEAKING AT 3.5+ INCHES IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 74+ MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. LATEST CAMS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF A DRYLINE APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF
THE AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 2000J/KG OR MORE, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
SYSTEM. CAMS SHOW RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SPREADING NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT GOING TO REHASH AT THIS POINT. FORCING INCREASES AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION
INTO A LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND HILL COUNTRY.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO REDEVELOP. IF THE
TRANSITION TO A LINE HASN'T HAPPENED YET AND STORMS ARE STILL
DISCRETE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST.
ALSO WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR LINGERS THE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS AREAS LIKE SAN SABA, BRADY, AND JUNCTION AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXPANDS THE RAINFALL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MOVEMENT OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING, BUT
IF ITS NOT THEN RAIN TOTALS MAY ADD UP FAST OVER THERE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..TURNING WINDY AND COOLER WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
MID/LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. WILL NOT PUT OUT WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT LET THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR FOR ITS
INCLUSION, AFTER TONIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WERE LEFT OUT WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A NON ZERO
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER, IN HEARTLAND...MCCULLOCH, SAN
SABA, BROWN, MASON COUNTIES...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED, THE
COLDEST READINGS WILL BE IN HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 90 DEGREES SATURDAY. WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, AND WILL BE MONITORING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE, PARTICULARLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EAST OF A
CROSS PLAINS TO ROOSEVELT LINE WILL AFFECT KBBD AND KJCT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS UNTIL AROUND 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN THE
EARLY MORNING AS A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND MID-MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KABI
BY 18Z, KSJT SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, AND OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS
(KSOA AND KJCT) 20Z-21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 34 KNOTS AT KABI, AROUND 31 KNOTS AT KSJT AND
KBBD, AND 26-29 KNOTS AT KSOA AND KJCT. PATCHY POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE VFR-BASED (CEILINGS AROUND
4000FT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 37 67 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 37 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 78 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 37 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 38 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 76 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 74 38 64 44 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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