487
FXUS64 KSJT 110628
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
128 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN IN THE 30S POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
- MUCH WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. LATEST CAMS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF A DRYLINE APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF
THE AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 2000J/KG OR MORE, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
SYSTEM. CAMS SHOW RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SPREADING NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT GOING TO REHASH AT THIS POINT. FORCING INCREASES AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION
INTO A LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND HILL COUNTRY.
WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO REDEVELOP. IF THE
TRANSITION TO A LINE HASN'T HAPPENED YET AND STORMS ARE STILL
DISCRETE, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST.
ALSO WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR LINGERS THE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS AREAS LIKE SAN SABA, BRADY, AND JUNCTION AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET EXPANDS THE RAINFALL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MOVEMENT OF THE
SQUALL LINE MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING, BUT
IF ITS NOT THEN RAIN TOTALS MAY ADD UP FAST OVER THERE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED/BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB THERMAL
RIDING IN THE AREA. HIGHS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY,
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLDER LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EAST OF A
CROSS PLAINS TO ROOSEVELT LINE WILL AFFECT KBBD AND KJCT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS UNTIL AROUND 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN THE
EARLY MORNING AS A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND MID-MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KABI
BY 18Z, KSJT SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, AND OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS
(KSOA AND KJCT) 20Z-21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 34 KNOTS AT KABI, AROUND 31 KNOTS AT KSJT AND
KBBD, AND 26-29 KNOTS AT KSOA AND KJCT. PATCHY POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE VFR-BASED (CEILINGS AROUND
4000FT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 37 67 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 74 37 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 78 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 37 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 38 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 76 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 74 38 64 44 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21/19
AVIATION...19
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