529
FXUS64 KSJT 111643
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY, WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
- MUCH WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF DUST TO CROCKETT COUNTY AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A LINGERING AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (EAST OF A CROSS PLAINS
TO ROOSEVELT LINE) AT 145 AM. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF ASCENT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT TRAVERSES OUR AREA. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER FAR EAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TODAY, AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY (25-35 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH). THUS, WE ARE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY (COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-20)
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 6 PM. SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY, TODAY WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MUCH
COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
NORTH, TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED/BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB THERMAL
RIDING IN THE AREA. HIGHS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 90 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY,
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLDER LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER THE RECENTLY CLEARED
AREAS, HOWEVER, PATCHY STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED.
THIS IS AFFECTING KBBD AND COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT KJCT. THIS
LOW CLOUD COVER COULD PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING, UNTIL WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES THIS MORNING. GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND MID-MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KABI
BY 18Z, KSJT SHORTLY AFTER 18Z, AND OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS
(KSOA AND KJCT) 20Z-21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 34 KNOTS AT KABI, AROUND 31 KNOTS AT KSJT AND
KBBD, AND 26-29 KNOTS AT KSOA AND KJCT. PATCHY POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL BE VFR-BASED (CEILINGS AROUND
4000FT). NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 69 37 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 68 36 66 40 / 10 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 65 38 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 69 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 69 37 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19
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