532
FXUS64 KSJT 111815
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
115 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY, WHERE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
- THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
- MUCH WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
- MUCH COLDER WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (15%-40%) OF A HARD
FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF DUST TO CROCKETT COUNTY AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A LINGERING AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (EAST OF A CROSS PLAINS
TO ROOSEVELT LINE) AT 145 AM. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF ASCENT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT TRAVERSES OUR AREA. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER FAR EAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TODAY, AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY (25-35 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH). THUS, WE ARE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY (COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-20)
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 6 PM. SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY, TODAY WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MUCH
COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
NORTH, TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A DRY PATTERN RETURNS TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AS
A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. AFTER THE
FRONT TODAY BRINGS COOLER CONDITIONS, A WARMING TREND WILL KICK
BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
UP TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING COOLER HIGHS,
BUT ALSO COLDER EARLY MORNING LOWS AS A DRY AIR MASS ALLOWS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM THE MODEL BLENDS ARE DOWN IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND AS MENTIONED
BEFORE, THESE WONT PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH IF ONE OF THE NIGHTS
SETS UP PERFECTLY. COULD EASILY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KTS AT
KABI AND 30 TO 35 KTS FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING, THEN LOSE THERE GUSTY CHARACTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH TOWARD NOON THURSDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 38 66 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 37 68 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 36 66 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 36 66 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 38 68 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 38 68 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 37 63 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-
MCCULLOCH-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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