683
FXUS64 KSJT 141054
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
554 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN
BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO.
- COLD EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. MONITORING FOR A
POTENTIAL FREEZE, AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. IN
FACT, WE MAY COME CLOSE TO OUR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR ABILENE IS 91 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1908. OUR
FORECAST HIGH FOR ABILENE TODAY IS 89 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR SAN ANGELO IS 92 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK
IN 1989. THE FORECAST HIGH IN SAN ANGELO FOR TODAY IS 91 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. EXPECT TONIGHT
TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF A POWERFUL AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING, OR AT
THE VERY LEAST A WIND ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S WITH A FREEZE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND
A POTENTIAL FROST OR SHORT-LIVED FREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S, RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW OUR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND EXIT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH, AND OUR
FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY, AND CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 BY FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, AND
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME MINOR GUSTINESS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIMEFRAME CONTAINS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY, AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD RANGE
FROM 11 TO 17 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, ERC
PERCENTILES WILL BE NEAR THE 70TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE. ALL OF THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
UNTIL THEN, SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO SONORA LINE.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 9 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE, BUT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 64 83 30 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 92 61 90 32 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 88 58 92 30 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 88 60 86 30 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 92 63 83 30 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 89 57 89 33 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 87 62 88 32 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SN
AVIATION...41
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