385
FXUS64 KSJT 141735
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN
BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO.
- COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL FREEZE, AND POTENTIAL FOR
WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. IN
FACT, WE MAY COME CLOSE TO OUR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR ABILENE IS 91 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1908. OUR
FORECAST HIGH FOR ABILENE TODAY IS 89 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR SAN ANGELO IS 92 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK
IN 1989. THE FORECAST HIGH IN SAN ANGELO FOR TODAY IS 91 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. EXPECT TONIGHT
TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAVE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AN INFLUX OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST, RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH IN THE EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND A POTENTIAL FROST OR
SHORT-LIVED FREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW OUR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER-DRIVING FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME MINOR GUSTINESS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIMEFRAME CONTAINS THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY, AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD RANGE
FROM 11 TO 17 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, ERC
PERCENTILES WILL BE NEAR THE 70TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE. ALL OF THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
UNTIL THEN, SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO SONORA LINE.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 9 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE, BUT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 82 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 61 87 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 59 89 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 61 87 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 63 81 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 57 88 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 86 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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