542
FXUS64 KSJT 141801
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN
BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO.
- COLD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL FREEZE, AND POTENTIAL FOR
WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. IN
FACT, WE MAY COME CLOSE TO OUR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD FOR ABILENE IS 91 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1908. OUR
FORECAST HIGH FOR ABILENE TODAY IS 89 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR SAN ANGELO IS 92 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET BACK
IN 1989. THE FORECAST HIGH IN SAN ANGELO FOR TODAY IS 91 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. EXPECT TONIGHT
TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAVE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AN INFLUX OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST, RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH IN THE EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND A POTENTIAL FROST OR
SHORT-LIVED FREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW OUR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER-DRIVING FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT REMAINING ELEVATED AT KABI AND KSJT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10
AND 20 PERCENT, WITH ERC PERCENTILES BETWEEN THE 70TH TO 85TH
PERCENTILE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS
WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO SONORA LINE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 77 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 61 84 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 59 87 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 61 81 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 63 77 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 57 86 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 83 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-
CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24
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