659
FXUS64 KSJT 142303
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY IN
BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM 11 AM SUNDAY, UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL FREEZE,
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
AND STRONG WINDS FOR TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY EARLY TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BARREL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS DEVELOPING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH, WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY, UNTIL
1 AM MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE
FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAVE STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AN INFLUX OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST, RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH IN THE EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY, AND A POTENTIAL FROST OR
SHORT-LIVED FREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW OUR
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS IN THE LOWER 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER-DRIVING FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT STRONG
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
MAINLY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY BLOWING
DUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. ALSO, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND
55 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 PERCENT, WITH ERC PERCENTILES BETWEEN THE 70TH TO 85TH
PERCENTILE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS
WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO SONORA LINE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25
MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 77 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 61 84 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 59 87 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 81 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 63 77 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 56 86 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 83 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-
CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21
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