234
FXUS64 KSJT 151758
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM TODAY FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY THROUGH 1 AM
MONDAY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A POTENT TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS GETTING
UP TO 55 MPH. GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT TODAY (SUNDAY)
TILL 1 AM CDT MONDAY. FURTHERMORE, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL IN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
BE SITTING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING FURTHER EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
SWITCHING OVER TO GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY
MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGING IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING
TREND UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO
THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY SOME TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN, WHICH AT THIS TIME
SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOON, THE FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KSJT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KABI. WILL
MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BASED ON TRENDS. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME BLDU AT KABI WITH
6SM VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH WAS DETAILED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION, WILL BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE. MEANWHILE, ERC PERCENTILES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
70TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE. THIS COMBINATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
AS A RESULT, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH 9 PM CDT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 31 52 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 32 53 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 33 54 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 32 52 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 30 52 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 34 53 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 34 50 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24
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