323
FXUS64 KSJT 151937
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
237 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY FOR ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AS OF 2 PM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND COUNTIES AND WILL CLEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH, WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO
AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 5 MILES AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, LIMITED DURATION OF SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING FURTHER EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
SWITCHING OVER TO GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY
MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGING IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING
TREND UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO
THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY SOME TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN, WHICH AT THIS TIME
SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOON, THE FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KSJT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KABI. WILL
MAKE AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BASED ON TRENDS. SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME BLDU AT KABI WITH
6SM VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS AND MINIMUM
RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT, WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 31 52 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 32 53 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 33 54 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 32 52 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 30 52 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 34 53 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 34 50 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24
FIRE WEATHER...24
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