550
FXUS64 KSJT 301857
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
157 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LARGELY LEAVE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, TONIGHT, AND TOMORROW. THE ONLY
THING WORTH A MENTION IS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AS TWO FAST-
MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COUNTRY'S
MIDSECTION. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PUSH TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BOTH WILL GENERATE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S,
AND CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST, STORMS COULD BE
DISCRETE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. EARLY HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS STORMS CONGEALING INTO A LINE BY THE EVENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR
FROM ANY BOWING SEGMENTS, BUT AT THIS POINT, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR NOW, SPC HAS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A QUESTION MARK, HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A
CONCERN AS MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WPC IS CARRYING A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD STILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WOULD GREATLY EFFECT HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND THE
DURATION OF THIS EVENT. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR PLUS RAIN AND
CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. HOWEVER,
TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO SEE MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH (KJCT, KSOA, AND KBBD). EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
JET PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 88 65 89 / 0 10 10 30
SAN ANGELO 60 88 63 90 / 0 10 0 20
JUNCTION 57 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 58 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 62 89 66 90 / 0 10 10 20
OZONA 59 84 62 87 / 0 10 0 20
BRADY 59 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...41
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