551
FXUS64 KSJT 311811
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
111 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-
25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. AT
THE UPPER-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE BIG BEND AREA. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND PAST THE CAPROCK. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND DRIFT INTO WESTERN CROCKETT
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. IN THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE TAIL-END OF A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO TOMORROW, THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE RETREATED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE AN INITIAL
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY,
AND THEREFORE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR. HAIL OVER
TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH WINDS OF OVER 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.
DURING THE EVENING HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS STORMS CONGEALING INTO
A LINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TO THE CONCHO VALLEY, WHERE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BE DRIVEN BY
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
SHIFT FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, MAINLY OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN BIG COUNTRY. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8
INCHES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE "ACTIVE" PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO WEST AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE AIR MASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THAT WILL SHARPEN UP NEAR OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER. AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE DRYLINE AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON JUST WEST OF OUR
AREA. INITIALLY THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. EVENTUALLY STORMS MAY GROW
UPSCALE INTO BROKEN LINES OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA. WE DO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS, AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. TIMING ISN'T CERTAIN YET, BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD
AFFECT OUR AREA MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS THIS FAR OUT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST, THEN NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
US, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROADER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, WE WILL AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY, STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AS WELL, BUT WE MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S AND
70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KT AT TIMES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10KT FOR SHORT PERIODS THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL ABOUT 08-10Z WHEN MVFR TO PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 66 90 62 86 / 10 30 90 10
SAN ANGELO 64 91 60 87 / 0 10 90 10
JUNCTION 62 89 60 86 / 0 0 70 30
BROWNWOOD 62 87 60 85 / 0 10 90 40
SWEETWATER 66 91 60 87 / 10 30 80 0
OZONA 63 87 61 85 / 0 10 90 10
BRADY 64 87 61 83 / 0 10 80 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...SK
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