053
FXUS64 KSJT 010546
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-
25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60. AT
THE UPPER-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE BIG BEND AREA. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND PAST THE CAPROCK. A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND DRIFT INTO WESTERN CROCKETT
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. IN THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE TAIL-END OF A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THIS EVENING
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO TOMORROW, THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE RETREATED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG. THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE AN INITIAL
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY,
AND THEREFORE WHERE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR. HAIL OVER
TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH WINDS OF OVER 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.
DURING THE EVENING HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS STORMS CONGEALING INTO
A LINE AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD TO THE CONCHO VALLEY, WHERE A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BE DRIVEN BY
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
SHIFT FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, MAINLY OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN BIG COUNTRY. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8
INCHES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WE WILL WILL
THEN HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THIS TIME, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL LARGELY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN FACT,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5 UP TO 15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT,
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED AS THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY. LOOKING AHEAD
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-30%) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE
IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE TSRA INTO THE TAFS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY IN THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 62 86 65 / 30 90 10 10
SAN ANGELO 91 61 88 63 / 10 80 10 10
JUNCTION 89 61 85 62 / 0 60 20 10
BROWNWOOD 88 61 84 63 / 10 90 30 10
SWEETWATER 92 61 88 65 / 30 70 0 0
OZONA 88 61 86 63 / 10 70 0 10
BRADY 87 61 82 63 / 10 70 30 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42
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