587
FXUS64 KSJT 011702
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CHILDRESS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN. A DRY LINE IS LOCATED EAST OF MIDLAND/ODESSA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND. THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO MIX
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
NORTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES. THESE INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, CAMS INDICATE STORMS CONGEALING INTO A BROKEN LINE
AND/OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DRY SOILS SHOULD TEMPER THE
OVERALL FLOOD THREAT, HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL LIGHTER ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
DETAILS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, OTHERWISE DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 60S, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE EAST AFFECTING THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND
11Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. STRATUS WILL AFFECT MAINLY KJCT AND KBBD, AFTER
06Z, RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS, DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 87 65 81 / 90 0 10 60
SAN ANGELO 62 87 64 82 / 90 0 10 50
JUNCTION 61 82 63 84 / 60 20 10 30
BROWNWOOD 62 83 64 80 / 90 40 10 30
SWEETWATER 62 88 65 82 / 80 0 10 60
OZONA 62 84 64 80 / 80 0 10 40
BRADY 62 80 64 80 / 80 40 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...DANIELS
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