785
FXUS64 KSJT 012147
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
447 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH EVENTUAL GROWTH INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS ADDED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR THESE AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR, AHEAD
OF A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DEG C, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS, NOT CERTAIN IN HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WE WILL HAVE IN OUR AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH.
AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
COULD HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR EASTER WEEKEND. OUR NORTHERN
(BIG COUNTRY) COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THAT AREA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ALOFT MAY MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE CLOUD COVER LINGERS FARTHER SOUTH.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50, WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
QUIET WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS. AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AFTER THE LINE PASSES OVERNIGHT ACROSS KBBD AND KJCT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 87 65 81 / 90 0 10 60
SAN ANGELO 62 87 64 82 / 90 0 10 50
JUNCTION 61 82 63 84 / 60 20 10 30
BROWNWOOD 62 83 64 80 / 90 40 10 30
SWEETWATER 62 88 65 82 / 80 0 10 60
OZONA 62 84 64 80 / 80 0 10 40
BRADY 62 80 64 80 / 80 40 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...41
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