759
FXUS64 KSJT 021801
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
PUTTING US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION (IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRIME
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO POTENTIALLY
SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY AS OF NOON TODAY, SPC HAS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE SLIGHT RISK TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN NOW
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PLEASE REMAIN AWARE AND KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR ANY FUTURE UPDATES. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR, AHEAD
OF A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DEG C, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS, NOT CERTAIN IN HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WE WILL HAVE IN OUR AREA. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH.
AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
COULD HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS BEING A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR EASTER WEEKEND. OUR NORTHERN
(BIG COUNTRY) COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THAT AREA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LINGER OVER THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ALOFT MAY MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE CLOUD COVER LINGERS FARTHER SOUTH.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50, WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
QUIET WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS. AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPACTING TERMINALS STARTING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
AROUND WITH KSOA, KBBD AND POTENTIALLY KJCT SEEING A BRIEF WINDOW
OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DECLINE FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FURTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 80 53 68 / 0 70 90 50
SAN ANGELO 65 83 55 68 / 0 60 80 70
JUNCTION 64 85 57 71 / 10 30 60 80
BROWNWOOD 64 81 54 68 / 0 40 90 80
SWEETWATER 67 80 53 67 / 0 70 90 40
OZONA 66 81 57 67 / 0 50 70 70
BRADY 65 81 56 68 / 0 40 70 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP
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