340
FXUS64 KSJT 021909
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
PUTTING US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION (IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRIME
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO POTENTIALLY
SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY AS OF NOON TODAY, SPC HAS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE SLIGHT RISK TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN NOW
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PLEASE REMAIN AWARE AND KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR ANY FUTURE UPDATES. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING, AND SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES BY NOON TO 1 PM. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL (QUARTER SIZE OR A
LITTLE LARGER) AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MORE OF A THREAT FOR
STRONG/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/STREET FLOODING AND MINOR
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WITH THIS BEING A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR OUR AREA EASTER WEEKEND. OUR
NORTHERN (BIG COUNTRY) COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THAT AREA. CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, AND HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHEN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE CLOUD COVER LINGERS FARTHER SOUTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, BUT A FEW LOWER
40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA, TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
THE COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY AND UPPER 60S/
LOWER 70S TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED/BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS BY THAT TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPACTING TERMINALS STARTING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
AROUND WITH KSOA, KBBD AND POTENTIALLY KJCT SEEING A BRIEF WINDOW
OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DECLINE FURTHER BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FURTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 80 53 68 / 0 70 90 50
SAN ANGELO 65 83 55 68 / 0 60 80 70
JUNCTION 64 85 57 71 / 10 30 60 80
BROWNWOOD 64 81 54 68 / 0 40 90 80
SWEETWATER 67 80 53 67 / 0 70 90 40
OZONA 66 81 57 67 / 0 50 70 70
BRADY 65 81 56 68 / 0 40 70 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP
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