394
FXUS64 KSJT 030607
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
107 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WYOMING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN
ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS TO THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL SET OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR.
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA
BORDER, THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL DATA ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE
OF THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, SHOULD
THEY DEVELOP.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY,
AS A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KJCT SITE TONIGHT, AND
EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND WEST TO
THE REST OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO SETTLE IN AROUND 1500 FEET, ALTHOUGH SOME IFR CIGS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AND TAFS WILL BE UPDATED IF NEEDED. LATER TODAY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS POTENTIAL WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 53 67 47 / 60 90 60 0
SAN ANGELO 82 54 68 47 / 60 80 80 10
JUNCTION 85 58 71 47 / 20 70 100 20
BROWNWOOD 82 55 67 47 / 40 80 90 10
SWEETWATER 81 53 67 48 / 60 80 40 0
OZONA 81 57 67 50 / 50 70 90 20
BRADY 82 56 67 47 / 30 80 90 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20
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