948
FXUS64 KSJT 031724
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WYOMING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. AN
ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS TO THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP WELL SET OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR.
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA
BORDER, THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL DATA ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE
OF THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, SHOULD
THEY DEVELOP.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY,
AS A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY 1500-2500FT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER (MVFR) CEILINGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z AND 08Z.
SHOULD THESE OCCUR AT A TAF SITE, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY/CEILING WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATED TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT IS 10Z AT KABI, 12Z AT KSJT, AND 14Z-15Z AT OUR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS (KSOA/KJCT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
ITS PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY
TO MID-MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 67 46 67 / 90 70 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 68 47 65 / 80 80 10 10
JUNCTION 57 71 46 62 / 80 70 20 30
BROWNWOOD 54 67 46 67 / 80 90 0 0
SWEETWATER 53 67 48 67 / 90 50 0 0
OZONA 57 68 49 61 / 60 80 20 40
BRADY 55 67 48 62 / 80 80 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page