816
FXUS64 KSJT 031852
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
152 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A POTENT UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA, WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. OUR AREA IS IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HI-RES MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IN OUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL
THINKING AT THIS TIME IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AFTER 5 PM, WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WILL BRING A THREAT FOR URBAN/STREET
FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE IS
A SIGNAL IN THE REFS ENSEMBLES FOR REPEAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF ABILENE AND SOUTH INTO PARTS
OF THE HEARTLAND (COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES). THIS WOULD
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AND A HIGHER POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE MONITORING AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SHOULD HAVE SOME CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AFTER ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE 60S
TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY,
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED, BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-20 COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TO THE CONCHO
VALLEY...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG I-10, TO
70 DEGREES NORTH OF I-20.
COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK, THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION. LATER, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST, WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY 1500-2500FT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER (MVFR) CEILINGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z AND 08Z.
SHOULD THESE OCCUR AT A TAF SITE, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY/CEILING WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATED TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT IS 10Z AT KABI, 12Z AT KSJT, AND 14Z-15Z AT OUR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS (KSOA/KJCT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
ITS PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY
TO MID-MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 67 46 67 / 90 70 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 68 47 65 / 80 80 10 10
JUNCTION 57 71 46 62 / 80 70 20 30
BROWNWOOD 54 67 46 67 / 80 90 0 0
SWEETWATER 53 67 48 67 / 90 50 0 0
OZONA 57 68 49 61 / 60 80 20 40
BRADY 55 67 48 62 / 80 80 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page