833
FXUS64 KSJT 040353
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1053 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTER WEEKEND AND BREEZY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A POTENT UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA, WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. OUR AREA IS IN A WARM AND MOIST SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HI-RES MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IN OUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL
THINKING AT THIS TIME IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AFTER 5 PM, WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WILL BRING A THREAT FOR URBAN/STREET
FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE IS
A SIGNAL IN THE REFS ENSEMBLES FOR REPEAT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF ABILENE AND SOUTH INTO PARTS
OF THE HEARTLAND (COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES). THIS WOULD
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL AND A HIGHER POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE MONITORING AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SHOULD HAVE SOME CLEARING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AFTER ITS
PASSAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE 60S
TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL EASTER SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AS A FEW
MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE WEEK, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH ANY VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY FALL
TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD THESE OCCUR AT A TAF SITE, REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY/CEILING WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING FRONT AND
A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 68 46 69 / 90 60 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 69 47 68 / 80 80 10 10
JUNCTION 55 71 48 65 / 70 90 10 20
BROWNWOOD 53 67 46 68 / 90 90 0 0
SWEETWATER 53 67 47 69 / 100 40 0 0
OZONA 57 68 50 64 / 60 80 20 20
BRADY 55 67 48 64 / 80 90 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...TP
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